A new Emerson College poll shows that significantly more Florida voters plan to vote for the state’s pro-abortion amendment in November, than vote against it.
Despite this, experts say that the initiative’s supporters still have an uphill battle ahead.
Forty-two percent of the poll’s respondents indicated that they will vote “yes” – 17 points more than the 25% who stated they will vote “no.” The remaining 32% of voters said they were “unsure.”
In order for the amendment to pass, it has to garner 60% of the vote. This means that the pro-abortion side needs to win 56% of the currently “unsure” voters – a somewhat encouraging sign for the pro-life movement.
Furthermore, 57% of the polled voters stated that they believed Florida’s pro-life law protecting most unborn children after six weeks gestation is “too strict.” According to Emerson College Polling, “[15%] percent think it is not strict enough, and 28% think it is about right.”
On April 1, the Florida Supreme Court ruled 6-1 to uphold the law. The same day, the court allowed the pro-abortion amendment to be on the November ballot in a narrow 4-3 decision.
The measure is titled “Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion.” Many of its critics have slammed its wording as “misleading.”
The same Emerson College poll also found that former President Trump is leading President Joe Biden by 13 points in the Sunshine State.
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A majority – 51% – of the poll’s respondents said they planned to support Trump, compared to 38% who planned to support Biden and 11% who are undecided.
“With the candidate undecided voters lean toward allocated, Trump’s overall support increases to 56%, and Biden to 44%,” the polling center indicated.
If this trend holds, Trump would be the first presidential nominee from either party to win Florida by double digits since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Emerson College Polling noted that in Florida:
Among Biden voters, 32% support him because they dislike Trump, 24% because they like Biden, 19% care about an issue, and 14% support their party’s candidate.
Among Trump voters, 31% support him because they care about an issue, 28% because they like Trump, 16% because they dislike Biden, and 14% support their party’s candidate.
Election data analyst Michael Pruser took to X (formerly Twitter) last week to explain why he thinks it will be particularly hard for Florida’s pro-abortion amendment to reach 60% of support.
“I don’t think a pro-Republican position has a chance of clearing 60% in Florida, let alone an anti-Republican one,” he wrote. “What wouldn’t pass in Kansas and Ohio during off-year special turnout will almost assuredly not pass in Florida during a Presidential year [with] Trump on the top of the ticket.”
“The math on 60% is crazy hard when you consider what the turnout will look like,” Pruser pointed out.
“To make 60% work, you’ll need a share of about 23% Republican / 95% Democrat / 77% Independent to vote YES (which is always harder than NO),” the analyst explained. “This gives you a total of 6,554,500 votes and a winning percentage of 60.13%.”
Pruser also explained that in addition to Trump’s presence on the ballot, popular Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ opposition to the amendment will diminish its chances of passing.
DeSantis signed Florida’s pro-life bill into law in April of last year.
“You can also bet that DeSantis will do what [Kansas Gov.] Laura Kelly and [Ohio Gov.] Mike DeWine didn’t—use his office’s full weight against the amendment,” Pruser wrote.
“Let’s see what ballot requests and registration numbers look like in July, and we’ll know whether or not [the amendment] has any momentum,” he concluded.
LifeNews Note: Joshua Mercer writes for CatholicVote, where this column originally appeared.
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